Market Overview
The ductless heating and cooling system market is anticipated to register consistent growth over the forecast period due to rising consumer awareness regarding indoor air quality, climate change, and energy-efficient appliances. Unlike conventional systems that rely on extensive ductwork, ductless solutions are compact, less invasive, and easier to install. These systems offer individual temperature control, enabling users to heat or cool specific zones independently, thereby enhancing comfort and efficiency.
Technological enhancements such as inverter-driven compressors, Wi-Fi-enabled remote control, and smart thermostats are further contributing to the widespread adoption of ductless solutions. In addition, government incentives promoting the use of energy-efficient HVAC systems are playing a critical role in fostering market expansion.
According to the research report published by Polaris Market Research, the global ductless heating & cooling systems market was valued at USD 98.88 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach USD 194.14 billion by 2030, to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% during the forecast period.
Country-wise Market Trends
United States
The U.S. market for ductless heating and cooling systems is experiencing substantial growth, propelled by increasing awareness of energy conservation and the modernization of older buildings. Demand for energy-efficient HVAC solutions is surging across the residential and light commercial segments, especially in states with extreme seasonal climates such as California, Texas, and New York.
Federal tax credits and state-level rebate programs are accelerating the shift towards ductless mini-split systems. Additionally, growing consumer preference for zoned climate control is boosting the adoption of multi-zone ductless units in large households and multi-family housing projects.
Canada
Canada's market is characterized by a strong inclination towards sustainable heating solutions. Ductless heat pumps have become increasingly popular in provinces like British Columbia and Ontario, where environmental consciousness is high, and energy prices are escalating. Homeowners are replacing baseboard heaters and older central HVAC systems with mini-split system adoption, reflecting a trend towards electrification of heating systems.
Furthermore, the Canadian government’s energy efficiency programs continue to incentivize the replacement of fossil-fuel-based heating systems with ductless alternatives.
Germany
Germany remains a leader in environmental policy and green technology adoption. The transition towards renewable energy and the country’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2045 are spurring demand for energy-saving heating and cooling technologies. In urban areas, ductless systems are increasingly integrated with solar panels and smart home infrastructure to maximize efficiency.
In residential retrofit projects, ductless solutions offer a practical alternative where conventional systems cannot be installed easily, making them highly attractive in historical buildings with architectural constraints.
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United Kingdom
The ductless heating and cooling system market in the UK is gaining traction amid growing attention to reducing household carbon emissions and improving indoor air quality. Particularly in London and other metropolitan areas, space constraints and the age of housing stock are encouraging the transition from traditional gas boilers to ductless heat pumps and air conditioning systems.
Government schemes like the Boiler Upgrade Scheme and rising interest in low-carbon home renovations are expected to drive increased adoption in both new builds and existing properties.
France
In France, the market is witnessing increased uptake driven by the government’s strong push for decarbonization in the heating sector. Ductless heat pumps are gaining ground in both single-family homes and apartment buildings. Regional programs offering subsidies for energy renovations are encouraging the use of energy-efficient HVAC solutions, especially in regions such as Île-de-France and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur.
Moreover, French consumers are showing heightened interest in advanced temperature control systems that allow for room-specific comfort adjustments.
Japan
Japan continues to be one of the largest markets for ductless systems due to its long-standing preference for compact, high-efficiency technologies. The majority of residential units, particularly in urban centers such as Tokyo and Osaka, are equipped with mini-split systems. The cultural preference for minimalism and the architectural norm of smaller living spaces complement the ductless system design.
Furthermore, Japan’s aging population is driving the demand for systems that are easy to maintain and operate, with growing popularity of smart features like voice control and auto-cleaning filters.
South Korea
South Korea is embracing ductless systems as part of its smart city and energy efficiency initiatives. With the expansion of high-rise residential developments, ductless air conditioning and heating systems offer the optimal balance between functionality and aesthetics.
There is also a notable shift towards premium models featuring air purification and dehumidification, reflecting rising health awareness among consumers.
China
China’s ductless heating and cooling market is expanding rapidly due to massive urbanization, infrastructure development, and a rising middle class. The country’s "dual carbon" policy aims to reach peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, positioning energy-efficient HVAC solutions at the forefront of national strategies.
Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities are witnessing a surge in ductless system installations, especially in new residential developments and modern office spaces. The rural electrification movement is also supporting the installation of split heat pumps in colder northern provinces.
India
India's market is emerging, driven by increasing temperatures, growing disposable income, and a shift towards residential heating trends that emphasize comfort and energy efficiency. While ductless cooling solutions dominate in warmer regions, northern states are beginning to adopt ductless heat pump technology for winter heating.
With ongoing government initiatives promoting building energy efficiency, such as the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC), there is strong potential for ductless systems to penetrate both the residential and commercial segments.
Australia
Australia presents a robust market for ductless systems due to its diverse climate zones. From humid sub-tropical cities like Brisbane to temperate regions like Melbourne, homeowners are increasingly investing in flexible climate solutions. The growing interest in solar-powered HVAC systems complements the energy efficiency benefits of ductless units.
Regulatory support and public awareness campaigns about reducing energy consumption in homes and businesses are further reinforcing market growth.
Conclusion
The global ductless heating and cooling system market is experiencing a robust expansion driven by climate-conscious consumers, national energy policies, and ongoing technological innovations. As countries adopt stricter environmental regulations and seek sustainable energy alternatives, ductless systems are expected to play a vital role in transforming how indoor spaces are heated and cooled.
From developed economies investing in retrofitting aging infrastructure to emerging markets focused on energy accessibility and affordability, ductless systems offer a compelling solution aligned with modern efficiency and convenience expectations.
As the momentum continues, strategic efforts to promote public awareness, support incentives, and enhance system integration with smart technologies will be pivotal in sustaining growth across the global ductless HVAC landscape.
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